How Critical Are Bilateral Imports and Exports to the Economies of the US and China?
11 October 2025 by Larry C. Johnson
The social media trade war between China and the US appears ominous. However, if viewed in macroeconomic terms, neither country is dependent on imports and exports from the other in terms of GDP growth. But the real impact is on the microeconomic level… The US is dependent on China for drones, drone components, processed rare earth minerals and magnets. The US has no alternative source for these resources in the short-and-medium term. Limiting those exports to the US will have a major deleterious effect on the US defense industry.
So let’s first breakout the macro statistics:
Direct Dependence: Imports from China as a Share of US GDP
The most straightforward measure of US economic dependence on imports from China is the value of those imports relative to total US GDP. Based on the latest available data for 2024:
- US goods imports from China totaled approximately $439 billion (official US Census Bureau and USTR figures).
- US services imports from China were about $22 billion.
- Combined imports: $461 billion.
- US nominal GDP in 2024 was $28.65 trillion (Bureau of Economic Analysis).
This equates to 1.61% of GDP.
This percentage has declined over time due to trade diversification and tariffs, dropping from about 2.7% in 2018 (when imports were ~$540 billion against a $20.9 trillion GDP).
Direct Dependence: Exports to China as a Share of US GDP
The most straightforward measure of US economic dependence on exports to China is the value of those exports relative to total US GDP. Based on the latest available data for 2024:
- US goods exports to China totaled approximately $143.2 billion (US Census Bureau and USTR figures).
- US services exports to China were about $55.0 billion.
- Combined exports: $198.2 billion.
- US nominal GDP in 2024 was $29.99 trillion (derived from Bureau of Economic Analysis quarterly data and IMF estimates, reflecting 5.028% nominal growth on a ~$28.5 trillion 2023 base).
- This equates to 0.66% of GDP.
This percentage has remained stable but low over time, hovering around 0.6-0.8% since 2018, as total US exports (all destinations) were only ~11.5% of GDP in 2024.
Overall, US exports (all countries) represent a modest ~11.5% of GDP, so China’s share is minimal. Recent tariffs and diversification (e.g., via USMCA) further reduce reliance.
Direct Dependence: Exports to the US as a Share of China’s GDP
The most straightforward measure of China’s economic dependence on exports to the US is the value of those exports relative to total Chinese GDP. Based on the latest available data for 2024:
- China’s goods exports to the US totaled approximately $438.7 billion (US Census Bureau and USTR figures; note that Chinese customs data reports a higher ~$524.7 billion due to methodological differences in valuation and inclusion of certain transshipments, but the US import figure is used for consistency in bilateral trade accounting).
- China’s services exports to the US were about $21.9 billion.
- Combined exports: $460.6 billion.
- China’s nominal GDP in 2024 was $17.79 trillion (World Bank and IMF data).
This equates to 2.59% of GDP.
This percentage has declined from ~3.5% in 2018 due to US tariffs, supply chain shifts, and China’s domestic consumption push, with total exports (all destinations) at ~18.5% of GDP in 2024.
Overall, China’s exports (all countries) represent ~18.5% of GDP, so the US share is notable but not dominant. Policies like “Dual Circulation” aim to further reduce external reliance.
Direct Dependence: Imports from the US as a Share of China’s GDP
The most straightforward measure of China’s economic dependence on imports from the US is the value of those imports relative to total Chinese GDP. Based on the latest available data for 2024:
- China’s goods imports from the US totaled approximately $143.2 billion (US Census Bureau and USTR figures; note that Chinese customs data may report a slightly higher ~$165 billion due to valuation differences, but the US export figure is used for consistency in bilateral trade accounting).
- China’s services imports from the US were about $21.9 billion.
- Combined imports: $165.1 billion.
- China’s nominal GDP in 2024 was $17.74 trillion (World Bank data).
This equates to 0.93% of GDP.
This percentage has remained low and stable, around 0.8-1.0% since 2018, as total Chinese imports (all sources) were only ~13.2% of GDP in 2024, with heavy reliance on commodities from Australia, Brazil, and others.
Overall, China’s imports (all countries) represent ~13.2% of GDP, so the US share is minimal compared to intra-Asian trade. Recent tariffs and diversification further lessen reliance.
As I noted in the introduction, the real danger the Chinese action poses to the US is largely confined to four classes of imports: drones, drone components, processed rare earth minerals and magnets. The following data explains Donald Trump’s howls of outrage:
Overview of US Dependence on Chinese Imports OF DRONES, RARE EARTH MINERALS AND MAGNETS
The United States exhibits high dependence on China for these critical items, particularly in defense, technology, and manufacturing sectors. This reliance stems from China’s dominance in global supply chains, exacerbated by 2024-2025 export restrictions, tariffs (up to 170% on drones and components), and geopolitical tensions. Below, I break down dependence by category, focusing on import shares, market reliance, and recent trends as of October 2025. Data primarily draws from 2024 figures, with 2025 updates where available.
Drones
China dominates the US commercial drone market, with Chinese firms supplying the vast majority of units.
- Import Share: Approximately 80-90% of US commercial drones are Chinese-made, led by DJI (50-70% market share) and Autel Robotics (15%). US imports of Chinese unmanned aircraft dropped 58.9% from Jan-Nov 2023 to Jan-Nov 2024 due to tariffs and restrictions, but China still holds over 70% of the residual market.
- Broader Reliance: In 2025, US tariffs reached 170%, tripling prices and slashing imports by up to 75%, yet no viable domestic alternatives have scaled to replace this volume. Military and consumer sectors remain vulnerable, with ongoing Section 232 investigations into national security risks.
- Implications: Disruptions could halt 80%+ of commercial operations (e.g., agriculture, surveying), per CSIS analysis.
Drone Components
US drone manufacturing heavily relies on Chinese-sourced parts, complicating diversification efforts.
- Supply Chain Dependence: China provides 70-90% of key components like motors, flight controllers, imaging equipment, and batteries. In 2024, China restricted exports of these to the US, causing price surges of 200-300% and supply shortages.
- Recent Trends: By April 2025, combined US tariffs hit 170% on components, disrupting global chains; 15 Chinese firms were added to the US Entity List in October 2025 for supplying parts used in conflicts. Indirect reliance persists via third countries (e.g., Vietnam assembly).
- Implications: The US military drone supply chain is “deeply dependent” on Chinese inputs, per Forbes, with domestic production lagging; restrictions weakened Ukraine’s drone capabilities as a proxy example.
Processed Rare Earth Minerals
Processed rare earths (e.g., oxides, compounds) are essential for electronics, EVs, and defense; China controls ~90% of global processing.
- Import Share: China supplied 70% of US rare earth compounds and metals imports from 2020-2023, with 2024 estimates holding at ~70-77% (10.4 million kg total imports). Net import reliance dropped to 80% in 2024 from >95% prior years, thanks to minor diversification (e.g., Malaysia 13%).
- Value and Volume: 2024 imports valued at $170 million (down 11% from 2023); apparent consumption ~6,600 tons.
- Recent Trends: In 2025, China tightened export controls on seven elements, impacting US defense; US mined 45 kilotons but exports 95% for Asian processing.
- Implications: 70-80% exposure leaves sectors like renewables and missiles vulnerable; USGS warns of supply risks.
Magnets (Rare Earth Permanent Magnets)
Rare earth magnets (e.g., neodymium-iron-boron) power drones, EVs, wind turbines, and weapons; China produces >90% globally.
- Import Share: US imports ~70-80% of rare earth magnets from China, with surges in 2025 (e.g., June imports up 660% month-over-month to 353 metric tons amid pre-restriction stockpiling). China controls >99% of heat-resistant magnet precursors.
- Broader Reliance: Even non-Chinese sources often use Chinese processing; 2025 restrictions caused a 93% drop in US magnet imports from China in May.
- Implications: Critical for defense (e.g., F-35 jets); CSIS notes threats to supply chains, with US efforts (e.g., $450M DPA funding) insufficient to reduce reliance below 70% short-term.
| Category | Est. Chinese Import Share | Net Reliance | Key 2025 Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drones | 80-90% | High | Tariffs (170%), bans |
| Drone Components | 70-90% | High | Export controls, Entity List |
| Processed Rare Earths | 70-77% | 80% | Processing monopoly |
| Rare Earth Magnets | 70-80% | >90% global | Magnet-specific restrictions |
Donald Trump may not grasp the nuances of chess, but he does understand poker… And Trump does not hold any trump cards when it comes to China and these essential categories of imports.